Research Areas
- Agricultural and Trade Policy Modeling
- Agriculture-Environment Linkages
- Bio-technology and Agricultural Impacts
- Bio-energy Production and Agricultural Impacts
- Energy Modeling
PAMG has the capacity to model agricultural and trade policies both in partial and general equilibrium frameworks. In the partial setting, effects of a wide range of domestic and trade policies can be analyzed both in Turkey and in various world agricultural commodity markets. These policies include both quantity and price related policy instruments applied in the country and at border. In the partial setting bilateral trade policies such as preferential access can be modeled as well.
The general equilibrium framework has the capacity to model impacts of macroeconomic policies in Turkey on the agricultural sector. The opposite can be modeled as well such that effects of commodity market policies on macroeconomic balances of Turkey. In this framework inter-industry and factor market impacts can be derived also. Currently, this framework is being constructed in the comparative static fashion.
PAMG can model agricultural and trade policies in a full econometric partial equilibrium setting as well. This framework can be linked to the worldwide known and applied FAPRI model. Therefore, while on the one hand this setting has the capacity to transmit world market changes to commodity markets in Turkey, on the other hand it allows for dynamic analysis as well with its econometric structure.
Agriculture and environmental linkages are included in two different contexts. Currently, effects of commodity level domestic and border policies on greenhouse gas emissions and on groundwater nitrate pollution can be analyzed in various countries in the partial equilibrium setting. Different production systems in various countries and even changing production systems in certain regions of the country maintained to be the main factor affecting both greenhouse gas emissions and groundwater nitrate pollution. Since, methane and nitrous oxide appear to be the main causes of greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture and mainly from livestock production, put in other way since carbon dioxide equivalent of these two gases are quite high, PAMG focuses on methane and nitrous oxide emissions as the main sources of greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture.
In PAMG gas emissions can also be modeled in an input-output structure. This framework uses Turkey´s input-output matrix and it can be employed to measure emissions of various gases both from agriculture and non-agriculture based industries. In agriculture, this framework allows for the measurement of some commodity specific gas emissions as well. The emissions included are not only related to greenhouse gases but industry-wise other polluting gas emissions of can be measured.
The nitrate pollution in groundwater is significantly related to production system in livestock sector. Basically, changing nitrogenous fertiliser and concentrate feed used in different production systems contributes to nitrate emissions in different levels. While some nitrogen content is removed in milk the effect of emissions on groundwater concentrations depends on the degree of dilution offered by annual drainage. Therefore PAMG approaches to above issue by endogenizing feed and nitrogen use in partial equilibrium setting. Then an environmental damage function is linked to livestock sector that accounts for physical damage/pollution in groundwater.
PAMG is able to measure the impact of both first and second generation genetically modified products through the use of a partial equilibrium model. Use of bio-technology and its impact on production costs, on supply and relative prices in the economy, besides changing world wide demand and preferences for genetically modified and non-modified goods are all in the concern of PAMG. It is possible to derive not only domestic commodity market but world commodity market effects of genetic modification as well.
Energy policy modeling is another topic that PAMG focuses on by utilizing a computable general equilibrium model and an input-output model. While the general equilibrium framework is used to derive the budget, trade balance, welfare and various inter-industrial impacts of changing energy policies, the input-output model is used to derive environmental impacts of various energy sources. Currently, PAMG is working on derivation of the impacts of changing worldwide bio-energy policies on domestic and international agricultural markets.
Jan 08, 2008